J/ApJ/817/60 Multiply imaged supernova Refsdal (Treu+, 2016)
"Refsdal" meets popper: comparing predictions of the re-appearance of the
multiply imaged supernova behind MACSJ1149.5+2223.
Treu T., Brammer G., Diego J.M., Grillo C., Kelly P.L., Oguri M.,
Rodney S.A., Rosati P., Sharon K., Zitrin A., Balestra I., Bradac M.,
Broadhurst T., Caminha G.B., Halkola A., Hoag A., Ishigaki M.,
Johnson T.L., Karman W., Kawamata R., Mercurio A., Schmidt K.B.,
Strolger L.-G., Suyu S.H., Filippenko A.V., Foley R.J., Jha S.W., Patel B.
<Astrophys. J., 817, 60 (2016)>
=2016ApJ...817...60T 2016ApJ...817...60T (SIMBAD/NED BibCode)
ADC_Keywords: Gravitational lensing ; Redshifts ; Supernovae ; Galaxies, optical
Keywords: gravitational lensing: strong
Abstract:
Supernova "Refsdal", multiply imaged by cluster MACS1149.5+2223,
represents a rare opportunity to make a true blind test of model
predictions in extragalactic astronomy, on a timescale that is short
compared to a human lifetime. In order to take advantage of this
event, we produced seven gravitational lens models with five
independent methods, based on Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Hubble
Frontier Field images, along with extensive spectroscopic follow-up
observations by HST, the Very Large and the Keck Telescopes. We
compare the model predictions and show that they agree reasonably well
with the measured time delays and magnification ratios between the
known images, even though these quantities were not used as input.
This agreement is encouraging, considering that the models only
provide statistical uncertainties, and do not include additional
sources of uncertainties such as structure along the line of sight,
cosmology, and the mass sheet degeneracy. We then present the model
predictions for the other appearances of supernova "Refsdal". A future
image will reach its peak in the first half of 2016, while another
image appeared between 1994 and 2004. The past image would have been
too faint to be detected in existing archival images. The future image
should be approximately one-third as bright as the brightest known
image (i.e., HAB∼25.7mag at peak and HAB∼26.7mag six months before
peak), and thus detectable in single-orbit HST images. We will find
out soon whether our predictions are correct.
Description:
Since the discovery of SN Refsdal on 2014 November 11, the
MACSJ1149.5+2223 field has been observed in great detail, with HST
imaging in optical and infrared bands, and deep spectroscopy from HST,
Keck, and the VLT.
The HST grism spectroscopy comprises two data sets. The GLASS data
consist of 10 orbits of exposures taken through the G102 grism and 4
orbits of exposures taken through the G141 grism, spanning the
wavelength range 0.81-1.69um. The GLASS data were taken at two
approximately orthogonal position angles (PAs) to mitigate
contamination by nearby sources (the first one on 2014 February 23-25,
the second PA on 2014 November 3-11). The SN Refsdal follow-up spectra
were taken between 2014 December 23 and 2015 January 4. For more
details the reader is referred to Schmidt et al. (2014ApJ...782L..36S 2014ApJ...782L..36S)
and Treu et al. (2015, J/ApJ/812/114) for GLASS, and G. B. Brammer et
al. (2015, in preparation) and P. L. Kelly et al. (2015, in
preparation) for the deeper follow-up data.
Integral-field spectroscopy was obtained with the MUSE instrument on
the VLT between 2015 February 14 and 2015 April 12, as part of a
Director Discretionary Time program to observe SN Refsdal (PI Grillo).
Details of the data acquisition and processing are given in a separate
paper (Grillo et al. 2015, arXiv:1511.04093).
Spectroscopy of the field was obtained using the DEIMOS spectrograph
on the 10m Keck II telescope on 2014 December 20.
File Summary:
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FileName Lrecl Records Explanations
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ReadMe 80 . This file
table2.dat 41 429 Redshift catalog
table3.dat 82 97 Multiply imaged systems
table4.dat 45 99 Knots in the host galaxy of SN Refsdal
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See also:
J/ApJ/812/114 : Grism Lens-Amplified Survey from Space (GLASS) I. (Treu+, 2015)
J/ApJ/811/29 : GLASS. IV. Lensing cluster Abell 2744 (Wang+, 2015)
J/ApJ/801/44 : HST lensing analysis of the CLASH sample (Zitrin+, 2015)
J/MNRAS/444/268 : HST Frontier Fields clusters (Richard+, 2014)
J/ApJS/211/21 : Spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies in MACS (Ebeling+, 2014)
J/ApJS/199/25 : CLASH sources for MACS1149.6+2223 (Postman+, 2012)
J/ApJ/730/119 : HST/WFC3 observations of Cepheids in SN Ia hosts (Riess+, 2011)
http://www.stsci.edu/hst/campaigns/frontier-fields/ : HST Frontier Fields
http://archive.stsci.edu/prepds/glass/ : GLASS MAST home page
Byte-by-byte Description of file: table2.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 3 I3 --- ID [1/430] Identification number
5- 14 F10.6 deg RAdeg [177.37/177.43] Right Ascension (J2000)
16- 24 F9.6 deg DEdeg [22.37/22.43] Declination (J2000)
26- 31 F6.4 --- z [0/3.8] Spectroscopic redshift
33 I1 --- q_z Quality flag on z (4=secure; 3=probable)
35 I1 --- r_z Reference flag on z (G1)
37- 41 F5.1 --- ImgS [1.1/210.2]? Corresponding ID of a known
multiply-imaged system
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: table3.dat
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 5 F5.1 --- ImgS [1.1/210.2]? Identifier (1)
7- 15 F9.5 deg RAdeg [177.38/177.42] Right ascension (J2000)
17- 25 F9.6 deg DEdeg [22.38/22.43] Declination (J2000)
27- 33 A7 --- Z09 Z09 identifier(s) (2)
35- 39 A5 --- S09 S09 identifier (2)
41- 44 F4.1 --- R14 [1.1/14.2]? R14 and J14 identifiers (2)
46- 48 F3.1 --- D15 [1.1/8.2]? D15 identifiers (2)
50- 55 F6.4 --- z [1.4/2.5]? Previous spectroscopic redshift
57- 59 A3 --- r_z Reference of z
61- 65 F5.3 --- zspec [0.7/3.8]? New spectroscopic redshift (3)
67 I1 --- r_zspec [1/4]? Source of zspec (G1)
69 I1 --- Note [1/5]? Note (4)
71- 73 F3.1 --- Score [1/3] Average score (1=secure identification) (5)
75- 82 A8 --- Set Category (6)
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Note (1): Coordinates and ID notations of multiply imaged families of lensed
galaxies. New identifications were made by Sharon, Oguri, and Hoag.
Each modeling team used a modified version or subset of the list
above, with the coordinates of each knot varying slightly between
modelers.
Note (2): The labels in previous publications are indicated for:
Z09 = Zitrin et al. (2009MNRAS.396.1985Z 2009MNRAS.396.1985Z),
S09 = Smith et al. (2009ApJ...707L.163S 2009ApJ...707L.163S; <[SEL2009] AN.N> in Simbad),
R14 = Richard et al. (2014MNRAS.444..268R 2014MNRAS.444..268R;
<[RJL2014] MACS JHHMM NN.N> in Simbad),
J14 = Johnson et al. (2014ApJ...797...48J 2014ApJ...797...48J), and
D15 = Diego et al. (2016MNRAS.456..356D 2016MNRAS.456..356D).
Note (3): The redshift of image 4.1 was measured independently at Keck
(Section 2.2.3).
Note (4): Note as follows:
1 = See Table 4 for information on all the knots in source 1.
2 = We revise the redshift of source 3 with the new and reliable measurement
from MUSE (see Section 2.2).
3 = We revise the identification of a counterimage of 8.1 and 8.2, and
determine that it is at a different position compared to previous
publications. To limit confusion we label the newly identified
counterimage 8.4.
4 = The identification of source 12 was ruled out in Hubble Frontier Field
(HFF) work prior to the 2014 publications; we further reject this set with
spectroscopy.
5 = This image is identified as part of the same source as source 8; the third
image is buried in the light of a nearby star.
Note (5): The average score among the team is recorded; "1" denotes secure
identification, "2" is a possible identification, and higher scores
are considered unreliable by the teams.
Note (6): We define three samples of image sets ("gold," "silver," and "all")
based on the voting process. Following the approach of Wang et al.
(2015, J/ApJ/811/29), we conservatively include in our gold sample
only the systems about which every team was confident. The silver
sample includes images that were considered secure by most teams, or
are outside the MUSE field of view. See section 3.1.
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: table4.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 6 A6 --- Knot Identifier (1)
8- 16 F9.5 deg RAdeg [177.39/177.41] Right ascension (J2000)
18- 26 F9.6 deg DEdeg [22.39/22.41] Declination (J2000)
28- 29 I2 --- S09 [2/19]? S09 identifier (2)
31- 34 F4.1 --- S16 [1.1/41.3]? S16 identifier (2)
36- 41 A6 --- D15 D15 identifier (2)
43- 45 A3 --- Note Note(s) (3)
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Note (1): Coordinates and ID notations of emission knots in the multiply imaged
host of SN Refsdal, at z=1.489. New identifications were made by C.G.,
K.S., and J.D. Each modeling team used a modified version or subset
of the list above, with the coordinates of each knot varying slightly
between modelers. Nevertheless, there is consensus among the modelers
on the identification and mapping of the different features between
the multiple images of the same source.
Note (2): The labels in previous publications are indicated:
S09 = Smith et al. (2009ApJ...707L.163S 2009ApJ...707L.163S),
D15 = Diego et al. (2016MNRAS.456..356D 2016MNRAS.456..356D)
S16 = K. Sharon et al. (2016, in preparation)
Note (3): Note as follows:
1 = Images 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5 were labeled by
Zitrin & Broadhurst (2009ApJ...703L.132Z 2009ApJ...703L.132Z) as 1.2, 1.3, 1.1, and 1.4,
respectively. The labels of other knots were not given in that publication.
2 = This knot (*1.5 on Figure 3) was identified as a counterimage of the bulge
of the galaxy by Zitrin & Broadhurst (2009ApJ...703L.132Z 2009ApJ...703L.132Z), but rejected by
Smith et al. (2009ApJ...707L.163S 2009ApJ...707L.163S). As in the paper by
Sharon & Johnson (2015ApJ...800L..26S 2015ApJ...800L..26S), the modelers' consensus is that
this knot is likely at least a partial image of the bulge.
3 = Image 1.13.6 (*13 on Figure 3) is predicted by some models to be a
counterimage of 1.13, but its identification is not sufficiently confident
to be used as constraint.
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Global note:
Note (G1): Source of zspec as follows:
1 = HST-WFC3 (HST-GO-13459 and HST-GO-14041; PIs Treu and Kelly, respectively)
2 = VLT-MUSE (Program 294.A-5032; PI Grillo; 2015, arXiv:1511.04093)
3 = HST-WFC3+VLT-MUSE
4 = VLT-MUSE+Keck-DEIMOS (Keck-DEIMOS program: 47/2014B N125D; PI Jha).
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History:
From electronic version of the journal
(End) Prepared by [AAS], Emmanuelle Perret [CDS] 07-Apr-2016