J/MNRAS/456/1542 Predicting coronal mass ejections transit times (Sudar+, 2016)
Predicting coronal mass ejections transit times to Earth with neural network.
Sudar D., Vrsnak B., Dumbovic M.
<Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc., 456, 1542-1548 (2016)>
=2016MNRAS.456.1542S 2016MNRAS.456.1542S (SIMBAD/NED BibCode)
ADC_Keywords: Sun
Keywords: Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - solar-terrestrial relations
Abstract:
Predicting transit times (TT) of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from
their initial parameters is a very important subject, not only from
the scientific perspective, but also because CMEs represent a hazard
for human technology. We used a neural network (NN) to analyse TT for
153 events with only two input parameters: initial velocity of the
CME, v, and central meridian distance, CMD, of its associated flare.
We found that transit time dependence on v is showing a typical
drag-like pattern in the solar wind. The results show that the speed
at which acceleration by drag changes to deceleration is v∼500km/s. TT
are also found to be shorter for CMEs associated with flares on the
western hemisphere than those originating on the eastern side of the
Sun. We attribute this difference to the eastward deflection of CMEs
on their path to 1 au. The average error of the NN prediction in
comparison to observations is ∼12h which is comparable to other
studies on the same subject.
Description:
We compiled a list of 153 CMEs for which their ICME counterparts
were detected and their TT to Earth was measured. We used only the
events for which the CME source position could be determined. All
CME-ICME pairings were taken from the catalogue provided by
Richardson & Cane (2010, Sol. Phys., 264, 189).
File Summary:
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FileName Lrecl Records Explanations
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ReadMe 80 . This file
table1.dat 53 153 CME transit time data
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See also:
J/A+A/422/337 : Solar EUV Post-Eruptive Arcades (Tripathi+, 2004)
J/A+A/440/373 : Earthbound interplanetary shocks (Howard+, 2005)
J/ApJ/709/1238 : Solar Coronal Mass Ejection (Yeates+, 2010)
Byte-by-byte Description of file: table1.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 11 A11 "YYYY/MMM/DD" ObsS.date Start date
13- 17 A5 "h:m" ObsS.time Start time
19- 29 A11 "YYYY/MMM/DD" ObsA.date Arrival date
31- 35 A5 "h:m" ObsA.time Arrival time
37- 42 F6.2 h TT Transit time
44- 47 I4 km/s v CME velocity
48 A1 --- NS [N/S] North/South
49- 50 I2 deg LAT Latitude
51 A1 --- EW [E/W] East/West
52- 53 I2 deg CMD Central meridian distance
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History:
From electronic version of the journal
(End) Patricia Vannier [CDS] 05-Aug-2016