J/A+A/709/A60 Wave breaking predictions for hot Jupiters (Golonka+, 2026)
Planet-star interactions with precise transit timing.
V. Tidal decay of hot Jupiters through wave breaking.
Golonka J., Maciejewski G.
<Astron. Astrophys. 709, A60 (2026)>
=2026A&A...709A..60G 2026A&A...709A..60G (SIMBAD/NED BibCode)
ADC_Keywords: Stars, double and multiple ; Exoplanets ; Binaries, orbits ;
Optical
Keywords: planet-star interactions
Abstract:
Tidal interactions shape the evolution of close-in giant planets, and
internal-gravity-wave breaking offers an efficient pathway for
dynamical-tide dissipation, though its population-wide impact remains
poorly constrained. We aim to quantify wave-breaking tidal dissipation
for 550 hot Jupiters, accounting for stellar-parameter uncertainties,
and to identify the most promising systems for detecting orbital decay
through transit timing. Stellar masses, radii, and ages were
homogeneously redetermined from spectroscopic and photometric data
using isochrone fitting. For each system, these parameters were
propagated through a dedicated MESA model grid to calculate the tidal
quality factor, wave-breaking probability, orbital decay rate, and
transit- timing diagnostics. Long-term orbital evolution was modelled
to predict planetary destruction timescales. Wave breaking is
predicted to be largely inactive in pre-intermediate-age main sequence
(IAMS) stars. For hosts with masses <1.2M☉, it becomes effective
after the IAMS, while in more massive stars it begins between the IAMS
and the terminal-age main sequence (TAMS). The tidal quality factor
for systems undergoing wave breaking peaks between 10^6 and 10^7,
consistent with population-level inferences. About 43 % of planets,
mostly with periods <3.5d, are expected to inspiral on the main
sequence, providing a physical explanation for the observed tendency
of hot Jupiters to orbit younger stars. A further 41 % inspiral during
post-main- sequence evolution within the stages considered.
Roche-limit disruption dominates overall, with engulfment occurring
mainly for planets with periods > 5-6d. Systems with periods <1d, that
could in principle experience the strongest tidal forcing, are
unlikely to trigger wave breaking, leaving planets on stable orbits.
Conversely, the most rapidly inspiralling systems with high
wave-breaking probability may display measurable orbital-period
shortening only over multi-decade baselines, eluding immediate
detection. By contrast, the demographic imprint of wave breaking on
occurrence rates should emerge more readily, with the first signs
already visible in current population statistics.
Description:
The full dataset used to study wave breaking for the 550 hot Jupiter
systems. The additional WASP 12 subgiant scenario is also available in
the data as 'WASP-12 Ab subgiant'. The general and spectroscopic
parameters, the results from the isochrones fit and wave breaking
predictions for each system are presented in tables 1, 2 and 3
respectively.
File Summary:
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FileName Lrecl Records Explanations
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ReadMe 80 . This file
tablea1.dat 250 551 Spectroscopic and general parameters of the
studied systems
tablea2.dat 428 551 Results of the isochrones fits
tablea3.dat 537 551 Wave breaking predictions
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See also:
J/AcA/68/371 : WASP and KELT planet transits (Maciejewski+, 2018)
J/AcA/70/1 : WASP-18 Photometric timeseries and timing data
(Maciejewski+, 2020)
J/A+A/667/A127 : Photometric timeseries and transit times (Maciejewski+, 2022)
https://sweetcat.iastro.pt : SWEET-cat Home Page
Byte-by-byte Description of file: tablea1.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 19 A19 --- Name Planet name
21- 33 F13.11 d Porb Orbital period
35- 42 F8.2 m/s K ? Radial velocity amplitude
44- 50 F7.3 deg i ? Inclination of the orbit
52- 70 F19.16 Mjup Mp Planets mass
72- 88 F17.14 --- aR Semimajor axis in host radii
90- 99 F10.8 --- rprs Planet to star radius ratio
101-104 I4 "date" Disc Discovery year
106-109 I4 K Teffl Effective temperature of the host
from literature
111-113 I3 K e_Teffl Uncertainty of effective temperature of the
host from literature
115-119 F5.3 --- loggl Logarithm of stellar gravity from literature
121-125 F5.3 --- e_loggl Uncertainty of stellar gravity from literature
127-132 F6.3 --- [Fe/H]l Metallicity from literature
134-138 F5.3 --- e_[Fe/H]l Uncertainty of metallicity from literature
140-146 F7.4 mas Plx Gaia parallax
148-166 F19.17 mas e_Plx Uncertainty of Gaia parallax
168-176 F9.6 mag Gmag Magnitude in Gaia G filter
178-185 F8.6 mag e_Gmag Uncertainty of magnitude in Gaia G filter
187-195 F9.6 mag RPmag Magnitude in Gaia RP filter
197-204 F8.6 mag e_RPmag Uncertainty of magnitude in Gaia RP filter
206-214 F9.6 mag BPmag Magnitude in Gaia BP filter
216-223 F8.6 mag e_BPmag Uncertainty of magnitude in Gaia BP filter
225-250 A26 --- Source Literature source of spectroscopic data from
SWEETCAT, https://sweetcat.iastro.pt
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: tablea2.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 19 A19 --- Name Planet name
21- 37 F17.14 [yr] logAge Logarithm of the age of the host star
39- 58 F20.18 [yr] e_logAge Lower uncertainty of logarithm of the age
of the host star
60- 79 F20.18 [yr] E_logAge Upper uncertainty of logarithm of the age
of the host star
81- 97 F17.15 Msun Mass Mass of the host star
99-118 F20.18 Msun e_Mass Lower uncertainty of mass of the host star
120-138 F19.17 Msun E_Mass Upper uncertainty of mass of the host star
140-156 F17.15 Rsun R Radius of the host star
158-177 F20.18 Rsun e_R Lower uncertainty of radius of the host star
179-197 F19.17 Rsun E_R Upper uncertainty of radius of the host star
199-219 F21.18 --- [Fe/H] Metallicity
221-239 F19.17 --- e_[Fe/H] Lower uncertainty of metallicity
241-259 F19.17 --- E_[Fe/H] Upper uncertainty of metallicity
261-276 F16.11 K Teff Effective temperature of the host
278-295 F18.14 K e_Teff Lower uncertainty of effective temperature
of the host
297-314 F18.14 K E_Teff Upper uncertainty of effective temperature
of the host
316-331 F16.14 [cm/s2] logg Stellar gravity
333-351 F19.17 [cm/s2] e_logg Lower uncertainty of stellar gravity
353-372 F20.18 [cm/s2] E_logg Upper uncertainty of stellar gravity
374-389 F16.12 --- eep Equivalent evolutionary point
391-409 F19.16 --- e_eep Lower uncertainty of equivalent evolutionary
point
411-428 F18.15 --- E_eep Upper uncertainty of equivalent evolutionary
point
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: tablea3.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 19 A19 --- Name Planet name
21- 22 I2 --- Nout Number of realisations out of 100 that fell
outside of the MESA grid
24- 76 A53 --- Notes Notes about predictions
78-103 F26.10 --- Q ? Reduced tidal quality factor
105-132 F28.12 --- e_Q ? Lower uncertainty of reduced tidal quality
factor
134-160 F27.12 --- E_Q ? Upper uncertainty of reduced tidal quality
factor
162-179 F18.14 --- Mcrit Probability of wave breaking
181-211 E31.22 s Tshift2025 ? Shift in central transit times by 2025
213-239 E27.21 s e_Tshift2025 ? Lower uncertainty of shift in central
transit times by 2025
241-267 E27.21 s E_Tshift2025 ? Upper uncertainty of shift in central
transit times by 2025
269-288 F20.11 yr Tshift5min ? Predicted year when the cumulative shift
reaches 5 minutes
290-313 F24.16 yr e_Tshift5min ? Lower uncertainty of predicted year when
the cumulative shift reaches 5 minutes
315-337 F23.15 yr E_Tshift5min ? Upper uncertainty of predicted year when
the cumulative shift reaches 5 minutes
339-364 E26.20 ms/yr Pdot ? Orbital period change
366-390 E25.19 ms/yr e_Pdot ? Lower uncertainty of orbital period change
393-418 E26.20 ms/yr E_Pdot ? Upper uncertainty of orbital period change
420-436 F17.14 [yr] logAgedest ? Logarithm of the age of destruction
438-458 F21.18 [yr] e_logAgedest ? Lower uncertainty of logarithm of the age
of destruction
460-479 F20.17 [yr] E_logAgedest ? Upper uncertainty of logarithm of the age
of destruction
481-497 F17.12 --- eepdest ? Equivalent evolutionary point of
destruction
499-517 F19.15 --- e_eepdest ? Lower uncertainty of equivalent
evolutionary point of destruction
519-537 F19.15 --- E_eepdest ? Upper uncertainty of equivalent
evolutionary point of destruction
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Acknowledgements:
Jan Golonka, jgolonka(at)doktorant.umk.pl
Institute of Astronomy, Nicolaus Copernicus Univeristy, Poland
References:
Maciejewski et al., Paper I 2018AcA....68..371M 2018AcA....68..371M, Cat. J/AcA/68/371
Maciejewski et al., Paper II 2020AcA....70....1M 2020AcA....70....1M, Cat. J/AcA/70/1
Maciejewski et al., Paper III 2022A&A...667A.127M 2022A&A...667A.127M, Cat. J/A+A/667/A127
Maciejewski et al., Paper IV 2024A&A...692A..35M 2024A&A...692A..35M, Cat. J/A+A/692/A35
Sousa et al., 2021A&A...656A..53S 2021A&A...656A..53S, SWEET-Cat 2.0: The Cat just got SWEETer
https://sweetcat.iastro.pt
Barker et al., 2020MNRAS.498.2270B 2020MNRAS.498.2270B, Tidal dissipation in evolving low-mass
and solar-type stars with predictions for planetary orbital decay
License: CC-BY-4.0
(End) Jan Golonka [Copernicus Univ.], Patricia Vannier [CDS] 08-Apr-2026