J/AJ/170/3 TESS/Kepler: Multiplanet systems DYNAMITE models (Turtelboom+, 2025)
Searching for additional planets in TESS multiplanet systems: Testing empirical
models based on Kepler data.
Turtelboom E.V., Dietrich J., Dressing C.D., Harada C.K.D.
<Astron. J. 170, 3 (2025)>
=2025AJ....170....3T 2025AJ....170....3T
ADC_Keywords: Exoplanets; Models; Optical; Radial velocities
Keywords: Exoplanet astronomy; Exoplanet detection methods; Transit photometry
Abstract:
Multiplanet system architectures are frequently used to constrain
possible formation and evolutionary pathways of observed exoplanets.
Therefore, understanding the predictive and descriptive power of
empirical exoplanetary system models is critical to understanding
their formation histories. We analyze 52 TESS multiplanet systems
previously studied using Dynamite, which used TESS data alongside
empirical models based on Kepler planets to predict additional planets
in each system. We analyze additional TESS data to search for these
predicted planets. We thereby evaluate the degree to which these
models can be used to predict planets in TESS multiplanet systems.
Specifically, we study whether the period ratio method or clustered
period model is more predictive. We find that the period ratio model
predictions are most consistent with the planets discovered since
2020, accounting for detection sensitivity. However, neither model is
highly predictive, highlighting the need for additional data and more
nuanced models to describe the full population. Improved eccentricity
and dynamical stability prescriptions incorporated into Dynamite
provide a modest improvement in the prediction accuracy. We also find
that the current sample of 183 TESS multiplanet systems are highly
dynamically packed, and appear truncated relative to detection biases.
These attributes are consistent with the Kepler sample, and suggest an
efficient formation process.
Description:
The TESS mission is an all-sky survey searching for transiting
exoplanets, and has completed over 4 yr of observations since its
launch in 2019. Observations are taken in sectors, each covering
24"x96" and lasting ∼27d. TESS has completed its Prime (Cycles 1 and
2) and First Extended (Cycles 3 and 4) missions, and has reobserved
stars across multiple sectors. All of the stars discussed in this
paper were observed by TESS for at least one sector. We devote the
majority of this paper to discussing a subset of 52 stars that were
first observed prior to 2020 February (up to Sector 21, "inital"
observations) and then reobserved (albeit not continuously) between
2020 February and 2024 March (Sectors 22 to 76, "recent" observations).
As well as increasing the baseline of the 52 systems in the 2020
sample, we study the 183 TOIs classified as known or candidate
multiplanet systems detected as of 2024 July 11.
In 2020, TESS had completed 21 sectors of observations, and had detected
1800 TESS objects of interest (TOIs). Dietrich+ (2020AJ....160..107D 2020AJ....160..107D)
investigated the architectures of the 52 TESS multiplanet systems that
had been discovered at the time. In the Prime mission, targets
selected for high cadence monitoring were initially observed at 2min
cadence, and full-frame images (FFIs) were collected every 30min. 16
stars were only observed for one sector, while eight stars had 10 or
more sectors of data. We note that only 50 of the 52 TOIs analyzed in
Dietrich+ are included in the current sample, as two systems in the
original sample currently have only one PC, APC, CP, or KP (TOI-1277
and TOI-1449).
TESS's First Extended mission covered Sectors 27-55 (Cycles 3 and
4), and lasted approximately 2yr. For these sectors, an even shorter
exposure time of 20s was introduced alongside the 2min cadence,
and the FFI exposure time was reduced to 10min. In the Second
Extended mission (Cycles 5-7, Sectors 56-96), the FFI exposure
time was further reduced to 200s. 5 targets were only observed for
one sector out of 54, while 15 of the 52 targets were observed for
more than 15 sectors between Sectors 22 and 76.
In this paper, we first use more recently obtained TESS photometry to
assess the performance of the model predictions from the DYNAMITE
software package applied by Dietrich+. Next, we broaden our analysis
to the current sample of systems with multiple transiting planets or
PCs observed by TESS.
File Summary:
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FileName Lrecl Records Explanations
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ReadMe 80 . This file
targets.dat 12 183 List of targets (added by CDS)
table2.dat 118 57 Dynamite V3 predictions for the Dietrich+2020
(2020AJ....160..107D 2020AJ....160..107D) data set with the
Predicted Clustered and Ratio Models
table3.dat 156 196 Dynamite V3 predictions for the 2024 data set
with the Period Clustered Model
table4.dat 156 185 Dynamite V3 predictions for the 2024 data set
with the Period Ratio Model
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See also:
III/135A : Henry Draper Catalogue and Extension (Cannon+ 1918-1924; ADC 1989)
V/133 : Kepler Input Catalog (Kepler Mission Team, 2009)
IV/39 : TESS Input Catalog version 8.2 (TIC v8.2) (Paegert+, 2021)
J/ApJ/693/1084 : Ten new and updated multiplanet systems (Wright+, 2009)
J/ApJ/750/113 : Kepler TTVs. II. Confirmed multiplanet systems (Ford+, 2012)
J/ApJ/774/L12 : Kepler multiplanet systems analysis (Q1-Q8) (Steffen+, 2013)
J/AJ/156/82 : RV characterization of TESS planets (Cloutier+, 2018)
J/AJ/157/235 : Observations of the Kepler field with TESS (Christ+, 2019)
J/AJ/157/145 : HIRES RVs of three compact, multiplanet systems (Mills+, 2019)
J/A+A/633/A53 : TESS planet candidates classification (Osborn+, 2020)
J/ApJS/261/26 : Exoplanet host stars from LAMOST, TESS, Kepler & K2 (Su+, 2022)
J/AJ/166/33 : TESS-Keck Survey. XV. 108 TESS Planets (MacDougall+, 2023)
J/AJ/166/153 : TESS-Keck Survey. XVI. 8 systems Radial velocity (Murphy+, 2023)
J/ApJS/272/32 : TKS. XX. Exoplanet masses & orbit parameters (Polanski+, 2024)
J/AJ/169/235 : TESS-Keck Survey. XXIV. 47 distant giants RVs (Van Zandt+, 2025)
J/AJ/167/189 : Rotation period for 10909 TESS targets (Colman+, 2024)
J/AJ/169/76 : Observed & derived parameters of TOI companions (Matson+, 2025)
J/AJ/158/243 : A search for multiplanet systems with TESS (Pearson, 2019)
http://exofop.ipac.caltech.edu/tess/ : ExoFOP website
Byte-by-byte Description of file: targets.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 10 A10 --- Name Target name
12 A1 --- D20 Flag indicating that the target was part of the
Dietrich+2020 (2020AJ....160..107D 2020AJ....160..107D) dataset
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: table2.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
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1- 9 I9 --- TIC [29781292/467179528] Tess Input Catalog
identifier
11- 14 I4 --- TOI [119/1749] Tess Object of Interest identifier
16- 24 A9 --- Name Target name
26- 32 F7.3 d PerPCM [0.6/152.4]? Period from the Predicted
Clustered Model (PCM) (1)
34- 38 F5.2 d E_PerPCM [0/41.7]? Upper uncertainty in PerPCM
40- 45 F6.3 d e_PerPCM [0/26]? Lower uncertainty in PerPCM
47- 50 F4.2 Rgeo RadPCM [1/3.3]? Radius from the Predicted Clustered
Model (PCM) (1)
52- 56 F5.3 Rgeo E_RadPCM [0.3/1.6]? Upper uncertainty in RadPCM
58- 62 F5.3 Rgeo e_RadPCM [0.2/0.9]? Lower uncertainty in RadPCM
64- 68 F5.2 d PerPRM [1.4/80.2]? Period from the Predicted Ratio
Model (PRM) (1)
70- 73 F4.1 d E_PerPRM [0.2/32.5]? Upper uncertainty in PerPRM
75- 78 F4.1 d e_PerPRM [0.2/30.8]? Lower uncertainty in PerPRM
80- 83 F4.2 Rgeo RadPRM [1.1/3.4]? Radius from the Predicted Ratio
Model (PRM) (1)
85- 88 F4.2 Rgeo E_RadPRM [0.3/1.8]? Upper uncertainty in RadPRM
90- 93 F4.2 Rgeo e_RadPRM [0.2/0.9]? Lower uncertainty in RadPRM
95- 101 F7.2 --- TOInew [174/1749.1]? New TOI discovered since 2020 (2)
103- 108 F6.2 d Per [0/673]? Period of the new TOI (3)
110- 113 F4.2 Rgeo Rad [0.81/3.83]? Radius of the new TOI
115- 118 F4.2 Rgeo e_Rad [0.07/2.66]? Uncertainty in Rad
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Note (1): For each model, the period and radius at the maximum of the posterior
probability distributions are reported.
Note (2): TOIs discovered in these systems since 2020, with associated period
and radius reported on ExoFOP. Two of the systems (TOIs 1730 and 1749) have
had multiple new PCs discovered since 2020, which are shown in separate rows.
Note (3): Typical errors on the period of TOIs reported on ExoFOP are <0.001.
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: table3.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1- 10 A10 --- Name Target name
12- 18 F7.3 d Per [0.69/692.2] Period
20- 25 F6.3 d E_Per [0/61.3] Upper uncertainty in Per
27- 31 F5.2 d e_Per [0/79.1] Lower uncertainty in Per
33- 36 F4.2 Rgeo Rad [0.9/9.9] Radius
38- 43 F6.3 Rgeo E_Rad [0.2/10.4] Upper uncertainty in Rad
45- 49 F5.3 Rgeo e_Rad [0.2/2.3] Lower uncertainty in Rad
51- 56 F6.3 Mgeo Mass [0.8/65.1] Planet mass
58- 63 F6.2 Mgeo E_Mass [1.1/148.9] Upper uncertainty in Mass
65- 70 F6.3 Mgeo e_Mass [0.5/21.9] Lower uncertainty in Mass
72- 75 F4.1 deg i [81.1/91.3] Inclination
77- 80 F4.1 deg E_i [0.8/44.7] Upper uncertainty in i
82- 85 F4.1 deg e_i [0.8/44] Lower uncertainty in i
87- 91 F5.3 --- e [0.01/0.08] Eccentricity
93- 97 F5.3 --- E_e [0.01/0.07] Upper uncertainty in e
99- 103 F5.3 --- e_e [0.008/0.04] Lower uncertainty in e
105- 109 I5 ppm Depth [63/13170] Transit depth
111- 115 I5 ppm E_Depth [47/17400] Upper uncertainty in Depth
117- 121 I5 ppm e_Depth [32/11230] Lower uncertainty in Depth
123- 127 F5.3 --- Prob [0.009/1] Transit probability
129- 133 F5.3 --- E_Prob [0.001/0.74] Upper uncertainty in Prob
135- 139 F5.3 --- e_Prob [0.001/0.81] Lower uncertainty in Prob
141- 145 F5.2 m/s RVel [0.23/16] Radial velocity semi-amplitude
147- 151 F5.2 m/s E_RVel [0.18/42.41] Upper uncertainty in RVel
153- 156 F4.2 m/s e_RVel [0.18/8.89] Lower uncertainty in RVel
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Byte-by-byte Description of file: table4.dat
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Bytes Format Units Label Explanations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1- 10 A10 --- Name Target name
12- 17 F6.2 d Per [2.5/692.2] Period
19- 24 F6.2 d E_Per [0.1/127.5] Upper uncertainty in Per
26- 30 F5.2 d e_Per [0/77.6] Lower uncertainty in Per
32- 36 F5.2 Rgeo Rad [1.1/12.2] Radius
38- 42 F5.2 Rgeo E_Rad [0.3/15] Upper uncertainty in Rad
44- 47 F4.2 Rgeo e_Rad [0.28/3.1] Lower uncertainty in Rad
49- 53 F5.2 Mgeo Mass [1.25/90] Planet mass
55- 61 F7.2 Mgeo E_Mass [2.1/5383.1] Upper uncertainty in Mass
63- 68 F6.3 Mgeo e_Mass [0.79/33.4] Lower uncertainty in Mass
70- 73 F4.1 deg i [80.3/90.6] Inclination
75- 78 F4.1 deg E_i [1.1/43.4] Upper uncertainty in i
80- 83 F4.1 deg e_i [0.8/43.2] Lower uncertainty in i
85- 89 F5.3 --- e [0.01/0.08] Eccentricity
91- 95 F5.3 --- E_e [0.01/0.08] Upper uncertainty in e
97- 101 F5.3 --- e_e [0.008/0.04] Lower uncertainty in e
103- 107 I5 ppm Depth [91/19880] Transit depth
109- 113 I5 ppm E_Depth [68/70700] Upper uncertainty in Depth
115- 119 I5 ppm e_Depth [48/23040] Lower uncertainty in Depth
121- 125 F5.3 --- Prob [0.01/0.98] Transit probability
127- 131 F5.3 --- E_Prob [0.004/0.77] Upper uncertainty in Prob
133- 137 F5.3 --- e_Prob [0.001/0.009] Lower uncertainty in Prob
139- 143 F5.2 m/s RVel [0.2/25.4] Radial velocity semi-amplitude
145- 150 F6.2 m/s E_RVel [0.35/511.7] Upper uncertainty in RVel
152- 156 F5.2 m/s e_RVel [0.16/14.6] Lower uncertainty in RVel
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History:
From electronic version of the journal
(End) Prepared by [AAS], Robin Leichtnam [CDS] 23-Mar-2026